A few weeks ago I broke down PSU’s chances of running the table during the regular season. After what was supposed to be a big test against Wisconsin, the Nittany Lions find themselves a Texas or Alabama loss from sitting in the front seat on the train to Miami.
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Changes that have occurred: The Michigan line is obviously the current line that the books opened with this week. The line is definitely inflated a bit, but those are the numbers that I am going with. Indiana has done nothing but be really good at losing, so the line increased a bit to 18. Mediocre showings by Ohio State coupled with PSU’s dominance of Wisconsin will surely bring their line down from the previous +3 I had projected. Also, Ohio State’s public following packed more punch than it does now. A PK is probably around where it should have been before and is closer to the true odds.
Overall, this puts PSU’s chances of going undefeated in the regular season at about 32%. Their chances of making it to Miami are slightly less than this. Barring any surprises from the BCS standings, a loss is needed from either Texas or Alabama. So their chances of making the MNC would actually be: 32% (PSU’s Chances) – (Texas’ Odds * Bama’s Odds). In reality, you are looking at closer to 28-29%.
Right now PSU is trading at +455 on WSEX’s live market, which to be profitable would need their odds of going undefeated and winning in Miami to be over 18%. If they were to face off against Texas, I believe they would be listed as a 3 point dog. This would put their chances right above 12%. I believe the line would be completely opposite against Alabama, with the Lions coming in as 3 point favorites. Going undefeated and beating Alabama comes out to around 16%.
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9 comments:
Is your bet at WSEX, or am I remembering that wrong? Because if it is, it seems like selling a bit off at 14 would be +EV, right?
I have it at matchbook. I've just been using their long term market for the current odds.
There's no way I could have gotten 80-1 anywhere else. I should know this, but I am pretty sure they were at 45/50-1 at pretty much every shop.
You could just throw out some ridiculous price like +350 and see if anyone bites.
Yeah, that's what I think I'm going to do.
I'll probably throw +350 out there this week considering a PSU victory on saturday doesn't exactly skyrocket penn state's chances. No real reason to wait until right before their visit to Columbus.
Do you think you are over-estimating the possibility that both Texas and Alabama go undefeated? With each having a conference championship, they've got 7 games left to get to 13-0.
I'm sure the projected lines I came up with for both Texas and Alabama are off, but I tried it anyway. Based off the numbers I ran, I had Bama at about 21% and Texas at 19% (I averaged the conf. champ odds - saying Bama would likely face either LSU or Florida and Texas would likely face KU or Mizzou). That would work out to about a 4% chance of both going unbeaten.
Not that it's a big difference and it shouldn't really affect your hedging strategy, but I was curious if you worked the same game to come up with the 7.5%.
It is definitely too high. I half-assed the bama/texas chances. Going through it by game I actually come up with lower than what you came up with; 3.1%. So that would change winning vs. Texas to 12.46% and beating Bama to 16.43%.
I am not even going to get into how I came up with 7.5. It would only be regarded as mathematical if I was under the age of 16.
If the odds are different than I originally laid out then it absolutely effects hedging strategy. When the percentages change, the EV changes. In this case selling some at -350 would still be +EV, though.
I'll update the post when my excel disposes of the aids it has contracted over the past hour.
So, did you ever sell off some of your PSU future?
Alabama's chances of an undefeated season likely haven't improved too much, but Texas' sure got higher after this week.
Very little at the moment. I'll have a post about it tomorrow.
I am convinced Texas will go undefeated.
Or later today, we'll see.
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