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I am definitely not an expert in regards to coming up with these lines. So if anyone wants to throw out their opinions/disagreements with the lines I came up with please do so in the comments.
The "win rate %" is just the percentage of time a team will win the game outright if the spread is the "true" spread. The "odds at kickoff" column is the odds that Penn State would go undefeated if they are still unbeaten up until that game.
At this point, barring any mess ups on my part with the lines, the Nittany Lions currently stand a 9.92% of reaching the end of the regular season undefeated. The books are currently offering +810 to win the MNC.
Obviously, some of these games' lines may be a bit different come game time due to losses.
_
9 comments:
Nice analysis. Do you plan on doing this with any other teams?
If I am financially involved with their odds of making the national title game.
I don't take issue with any of those lines. Nice assessment.
I might try to do this for the rest of the unbeatens later this week.
I like the analysis, and while my approval doesn't hold as much water as ML's, I think the lines look reasonable. I was the guy who linked to it over at Black Shoe Diaries.
Over at The Greek, PSU is 12-1 to win the NC now. If the +810 and +1200 jive, that's a 70% of winning the NC game. PSU favored by 6 in an NC? Hard to imagine that situation.
eric-
I realized I didn't put playing the MNC game into the odds earlier this morning. That skewed my analysis a bit for sure.
So what I laid out is their chance of finishing the reg season undefeated. I can't really make any assumptions about who they would play in Miami except they would be a dog probably 60% of the time if both teams came in undefeated.
Very nice work. Do you think +900 is a good bet?
no
+16 against Michigan?
I love PSU and hate Michigan football but this game next to going to OSU scares me the most. No mater how good we look or how bad they look this is the game where all the bounces don't go our way, we suddenly decide not to execute, and the refs blow a call in their favor.
If I bet on sports I'd take Michigan and the 16 points in a heartbeat
Let me guess:
Is this because you are a Penn State fan and you are aware that you guys haven't beaten them in 9 straight games?
Streaks happen, they are also always broken.
I'm not saying which side is going to cover that spread, but that is right around where it would be put out if they played tomorrow.
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